If demographics is destiny, the demographics of the U.S. population does not bode well for the health or wealth of the nation.
About 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 each day. The fastest growing segment of the U.S. population is aged 85 or older. By 2030, according to U.S. Census Bureau, more than 71 million Americans will be 65 or older. This will be a 73% increase from 41 million in 2011.
Boomers’ medical needs will be magnified by the growing prevalence of obesity and chronic diseases. More than one-third of adults over age 60 are obese and 25% are diabetic. Nearly two-thirds over 65 have high blood pressure. Three out of four over 65 have multiple chronic conditions. Total cost, including Medicare, out-of-pocket and long-term care costs, is estimated to rise more than 7% per year between now and 2025. According to the Congressional Budget Office, Medicare spending alone is projected to increase from $591 billion in 2016 to $1.1 trillion in 2026.
Absent a dramatic transformation in healthcare, there will not be enough caregivers to meet the expected demand nor enough money to pay for it. The healthcare system will be overwhelmed and the cost could bankrupt many individually and our nation collectively.
That is the stark forecast offered by Dr. Joseph C. Kvedar, Carol Colman and Gina Cella in their smart new book, The New Mobile Age: How Technology Will Extend the Healthspan and Optimize the Lifespan. As Kvedar and his coauthors point out, it is easy to look at the aging boomer population as a societal problem. The book does a superb job painting a dreadful picture of that problem and how it might “bankrupt our economy and severely cripple our families and service infrastructure.”
Luckily, as the book’s title implies, the authors see hope. Instead of dwelling on the problem, they propose a two-part strategy to transform healthcare.
First, look at aging as a market opportunity rather than an economic burden.
Boomers are wealthiest generation in U.S. history. They hold an estimated $30 trillion in assets and drive about 35% of all discretionary spending. Yet, they are relatively underserved when it comes to targeted consumer technology. So, the market opportunity is to create technology-enabled products and services that help boomers live healthier and longer (thus the emphasis on both “healthspan” and “lifespan” in the book’s subtitle). Who doesn’t want to live healthier and longer? Boomers are ready, willing and able to be enthusiastic customers.
Kvedar cites three keys to healthy longevity. He also offers a wealth of ideas and case studies about how technology can play a central role in service of each.
- Maintaining a sense of purpose. “Purpose” can take the form of contributions to the workplace, helping with family matters or some other way of adding value back to society. Technology allows boomers to leverage their experience and expertise to pursue purpose in time- and place-independent manners.
- Social connections. Isolation can be as detrimental to health as smoking 15 cigarettes a day. Technology tools like Skype, Facetime, Facebook, social networking, email and texting are antidotes to isolation, especially as individuals become less mobile.
- Physical activity. This could range from walking a dog to strolling on a golf course, or perhaps regular trips to the gym. Around 25% of those aged 55 and over already own activity trackers, and that device market continues to be brisk. Now, the challenge is to get them to use those devices. With engaging mobile apps, Kvedar sees a very bright future for promoting physical activity.
Second, radically change the way we manage illness.
Kvedar points out that our healthcare system is focused on treating acute conditions, such as auto accidents, heart attacks, pneumonia, and so on. Yet, more than 70% of healthcare costs are related to lifestyle. We need to transform healthcare to focus more on preventing and managing chronic diseases.
As I wrote in my last article, and Kvedar emphasizes, technology is a key enabler to this transformation. For example, relatively mature technologies already can provide the ability to serve patients remotely, via video and secure messaging, and to monitor their vital signs in the home. This could both improve health outcomes and begin to address anticipated caregiver shortages. What is lagging are reimbursement models, reengineered workflows and receptive providers.
The book provides detailed case studies of early successes in critical arena, including managing chronic diseases, putting the “well” back into well-being and improving the art and science of caregiving.
If you’ve read some of my other healthcare-related articles, such as “We Need A Moonshot for Diabetes Prevention” and “5 Reasons Consumer Technology Will Transform Healthcare,” you’ll recognize similar themes. You won’t be surprised, then, that I heartedly recommend this book.
