Arkansas basketball vs Texas Tech prediction: Who has edge in 2025 NCAA Tournament second round?

PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Arkansas basketball is two wins away from the Final Four after a 75-66 victory over St. John's Saturday in the men's NCAA Tournament.

The No. 10 Razorbacks (22-13) are now in their fourth Sweet 16 in the last five seasons after John Calipari's most recent win over Rick Pitino. Billy Richmond scored 16 points and the Hogs held the No. 2 Red Storm (31-5) to 28% shooting in the upset win.

Next up is a trip to San Francisco to face No. 3 Texas Tech, who beat Drake 77-64 in the second round.

Below is a scouting report and prediction for the March Madness showdown between the Hogs and Red Raiders.

Arkansas basketball must slow down JT Toppin

The Red Raiders' 6-foot-9 wing is an All-American who averaged 17.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. He's efficient, shooting 55.2% from the field and making enough 3-pointers at 31.4% to make defenders respect him from the outside.

Toppin will be the top priority on the Arkansas scouting report. In the last eight games, the Red Raiders are 0-3 when he scores fewer than 20 points. The Hogs stifled St. John's top scorer, RJ Luis Jr., holding the big guard to nine points on 3 of 17 shooting.

Can the Hogs force some turnovers?

Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball. The Red Raiders were second in the Big 12 and 26th in the country with just 9.9 turnovers per game.

Arkansas loves to generate easy buckets in transition and apply pressure to opposing guards. It will be a difficult task speeding up the likes of Elijah Hawkins and Christian Anderson in Texas Tech's back court.

Will either team get an injured star back?

Adou Thiero missed his eighth straight game in the Hogs' win over St. John's but John Calipari has expressed optimism that Thiero could return if Arkansas advances in the NCAA Tournament.

Thiero, the Hogs' leading scorer at 15.6 points per game, practiced a bit on Friday in-between the victories over Kansas and the Red Storm.

Texas Tech guard Chance McMillian has missed three straight games with an upper-body injury. He averages 14.2 points and 4.1 rebounds.

Arkansas prediction vs Texas Tech: March Madness Sweet 16

Something magical is happening for Arkansas, and the Hogs' terrific defense will do just enough to stifle an elite Texas Tech offense. The Razorbacks also have a massive advantage in experience, from their roster to their coaches on the sideline. Arkansas will play in the Elite Eight. Arkansas 81, Texas Tech 78.

Jackson Fuller covers Arkansas football, basketball and baseball for the Southwest Times Record, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at jfuller@gannett.com or follow him@jacksonfuller16 on X, formerly known as Twitter.