Trump Didn't Kill the Old World Order -- He Just Pronounced It Dead
In the first 60 days of his second administration, President Trump has made it clear that he intends to end the Old World Order that has shaped our planet since World War II.
Free trade is out; tariffs are in. Nation-building is out; territorial acquisition is in. Wars of ideology pitting democracy against communism are out; trade deals are in. Foreign aid to win hearts and minds is out; bare-knuckled mineral deals are in. America as policeman of world is out; America First is in.
Talking heads (and writing hands) have expended much energy trying to discern the thinking behind this Trumpian strategy.
The Trump-deranged opposition believes that there is no rationale, that Trump secretly adores dictators and, like them, seeks to overthrow democracy to aggrandize his oversized ego. This says more about them than Trump.
Defenders of the existing order, including the diplomats, generals, deep state bureaucrats, and contractors see a treasonous sellout to former enemies. This reveals less about their patriotism and more about their lost influence.
The Left envisions a new imperialism and a return to the bad old days when white colonialists plundered the lands of brown people. This betrays a long-discredited view of class and race that even the Communists don’t believe anymore.
Former allies in Europe, Canada, and Mexico are just confused and exhausted.
There is a simpler explanation for Trump’s foreign policy actions: he is a businessman trying to fix America’s balance sheet.
Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has underwritten a global trading system by which we import cheap goods in exchange for political allegiance, and foreigners use those same dollars to buy our debt. This keeps inflation low and subsidizes gobs of domestic social spending and foreign wars. The price is massive trade deficits, even bigger fiscal deficits, and an uncomfortable reliance on foreigners -- not all of them friendlies -- to make it all work. This is a kind of reverse mercantilism, which erodes the financial strength of the country.

Having spent some time in bankruptcy court, Donald Trump knows a losing trade when he sees one. He must stop the borrowing. He must cut spending. He must reduce the trade deficit. He must pull back from far-flung commitments around the world and get us closer to home.
On the asset side of the ledger, private resources need to be protected and developed. He must preserve whatever is left of our manufacturing base. He must leverage our biggest asset, the deep, rich American market, to gain trade concessions.
Here’s how Trump’s foreign policy can repair the U.S. balance sheet.
Stop trying to buy hearts and minds. The Cold War is over. America won. If the rest of the world still wants to be ruled by totalitarians, monarchs, or Sharia law, that is their business. Too much foreign aid is wasted in pushing progressive exports (like DEI) onto an unwilling world. This is a fool’s errand.
No more nation-building. The U.S. tried to build American mini-me’s in Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. Despite massive amounts of ordinance, napalm, troops, shock and awe, the objects of our affection refused to love us back. We thought China could be transformed into a like-minded democracy if only we ran enough trade deficits with them. None of this has worked. We have only impoverished ourselves in the attempt.
Hey, policeman of the world -- you’re fired. Every time a fight breaks out somewhere in the world, the U.S. has to back someone, whether we know anything about it or not. The Russians are bombing the Taliban in Afghanistan! We’re for the Taliban! Whooops. Iran is at war with Iraq! Let’s take out Saddam Hussein! Really whooops. We’re like a cop called in to break up a domestic dispute that has been going on for 20 years -- we don’t know anyone and everyone ends up hating us. We’re not good at this.
America cannot fight a three-front war. Our opponent is China. Not Russia. Not Iran. Better to use European surrogates against Russia and Israel against Iran. This seems to be working. Europeans have increased spending on their defense. Sweden and Finland joined NATO. A re-awakened Germany will further stiffen European resolve. Israel can handle Iran.
Do not trade off economic benefits to win talking points. We Americans have a bad habit of opening up our domestic markets to anyone who tells us what we want to hear. Tell us how much you love us, and you can sell here. Nobody else does this. In the 1990s, China demanded 51 percent of any in-bound investment (for which they paid nothing), controls on the repatriation of hard currency, and the right to steal your Intellectual Property -- all for the privilege of building a factory in their country. Access to the gigantic Chinese market remained a distant promise. We know how that turned out. In Trump’s view, trading off hard economic benefits for soft power is a mug’s game. Better to learn from the Chinese and drive a better bargain against anyone who wants to access the American market.
Platinum immigration card. The right to live in the U.S. is another undervalued asset, which needs to be repriced. Joe Biden gave it away for nothing. Trump plans to charge $5 million a pop. If he sells 20,000, that’s a cool $100 billion -- per year. From a commercial viewpoint, the U.S. gets the top draft picks of the entire world, which will bring new investment and employment to the country. Over time, this new source of revenue could make a dent in the federal debt. I’m not tired of winning yet, but this is a good start.
Use tariffs to build up manufacturing. Tariffs remain the most controversial tool in the Trump toolbox because they raise consumer prices and protect inefficient enterprises, which raise prices further. They stir up unnecessary political problems with reliable trading partners in Europe, Canada, and Mexico and create uncertainties for business at home. On the other hand, American auto-makers survive on the profits of small trucks, which would not exist but for long-standing tariffs set up during the Johnson administration. Think of what Chinese EVs would do to domestic car manufacturers. Broad-based tariffs on our friends are destructive. Selective tariffs on our enemies are necessary.
Future trade will be conducted within ideology-free zones. The Chinese stopped exporting international communism a long time ago in favor of textiles, toys, and electronic components. Trump has ceased the export of democracy in favor of better trade deals. For better or worse, the world is returning to a time when self-interested nations scrapped over markets, raw materials, ports, and sea lanes rather than political ideology. In other words, the way it has always been.
Tectonic shifts of this magnitude will surely have unintended consequences. How will Europe react to a remilitarized and newly strident Germany? Will the heavily armed Turks wade into the Middle East to fill the Islamic vacuum? Will China sense strength or weakness in these changes?
The post-World War II order should have ended with the Cold War. Instead, it bumbled along for 35 years in search of a new enemy and caused a great deal of economic damage to the U.S. in the process. Trump did not kill the Old World Order. He just pronounced it dead.
Image: AT via Magic Studio
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