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The No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks and the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to collide in the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday. The Razorbacks are coming into this matchup feeling confident after they upset the No. 2 seed St. John's 75-66 in the second round. Texas Tech has won both tournament games by double-digit points. On March 22, the Red Raiders beat Drake 77-64. The winner of this game will move on to play either the No. 1 seed Florida Gators or the No. 4 seed Maryland Terrapins in the Elite Eight. Chance McMillian and Eemeli Yalaho are both questionable to play for Texas Tech with upper body injuries. 

Tipoff from the Chase Center is at 10:09 p.m. ET. The latest Texas Tech vs. Arkansas odds via SportsLine consensus list the Red Raiders as 5.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 147.5. The Red Raiders are -243 money-line favorites, while the Razorbacks are +198 underdogs. The over/under for total points scored in the first half is 68.5. Before making any Arkansas vs. Texas Tech picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-168 roll (+1815) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Arkansas vs. Texas Tech and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Texas Tech vs. Arkansas: 

  • Texas Tech vs. Arkansas spread: Red Raiders -5.5
  • Texas Tech vs. Arkansas over/under: 147.5 points
  • Texas Tech vs. Arkansas money line: Red Raiders -243, Razorbacks +198
  • Texas Tech vs. Arkansas picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Arkansas can cover

The Razborbacks are 11-6-1 against the spread when they get the same amount of rest as their opponent. They have also gone 9-7 against the spread as an underdog. Senior guard Johnell Davis is a sound shot creator. He logs 11.4 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Davis has scored at least 13 points in two consecutive games. In his last outing, Davis had 13 points and four boards.

Freshman forward Karter Knox is an athletic scorer who puts the ball on the floor. Knox logs 8.0 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. The Florida native has scored 10-plus points in eight of his last 11 outings. In the win over St. John's, Knox recorded 15 points, six rebounds and four blocks. See which side to pick at SportsLine.

Why Texas Tech can cover

Sophomore forward JT Toppin uses his 6-foot-9 frame to his advantage with a soft touch around the rim. Toppin leads the team in points (18.1), rebounds (9.3) and blocks (1.3). The Texas native has tallied two straight double-doubles in the tournament. In the victory over Drake, Toppin had 25 points and 12 boards.

Junior forward Darrion Williams is another downhill scorer with the ability to rack up points in the paint. This season, he averaged 14.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists per contest. In his previous matchup, Williams had 28 points, six rebounds and five assists. This was his seventh game with 20-plus points this campaign. See which side to pick at SportsLine.

How to make Arkansas vs. Texas Tech picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, predicting that the teams will combine for 151 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. See which side to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Arkansas vs. Texas Tech, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,000 on top-rated spread picks since 2023, and find out.