International students down 7% in first fall in 10 years

The first fall in the number of students registered at universities in the United Kingdom in a decade has been confirmed by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), with the number of international students dropping by 7% overall and postgraduate taught entrant enrolments from outside the European Union going down by 10%.

But observers say this is not enough to fully explain the financial difficulties of some universities, including one in Scotland which expects to run out of cash by June.

As the much-anticipated fall in international students at British universities was confirmed in official figures for 2023 to 2024, the spotlight turned to Dundee University after an explosive session in the Scottish Parliament this week heard allegations of “misleading” financial management and a climate where “dissent wasn’t welcomed” at the top of the institution.

The sudden decrease in overseas students is hitting higher education institutions hard up and down the country – but Dundee University in Scotland is reeling from a triple whammy after suffering one of the biggest falls in lucrative foreign students on top of a £35 million (US$45 million) black hole in its finances and an announcement that 632 jobs will go – about one in five of its workforce.

Dundee lost 27% of its international students – down from 4,570 to 3,335, according to a BBC investigation which found that the number of overseas students at Scottish universities fell by more than 10,000 last year, according to HESA data for 2023-24 released on Thursday 20 March.

What went wrong?

Responsibility for overseeing higher education is devolved to the four nations that make up the UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) and the caretaker management of Dundee University was hurled before the Scottish Parliament’s education committee on Wednesday 19 March, to be questioned about exactly what had gone so badly wrong at the institution, which became an independent university in 1967.

Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) heard evidence from the university’s interim principal and Vice-Chancellor Professor Shane O’Neill, and the acting chair of court at Dundee, Tricia Bey, both of whom have taken over as temporary chiefs of the troubled institution following the resignation of former principal Iain Gillespie in December, and Amanda Millar, who resigned as court chair in February.

During the session, which the Scotsman newspaper described as “jaw-dropping”, O’Neill told MSPs all options were being explored, including the university seeking a merger or ceasing to exist, as well as plans to axe 632 jobs.

Bey said: “Without support from the Scottish Funding Council, the university would run out of cash by the end of June.”

‘Misleading’ reporting

Dundee’s interim management has also authorised an independent inquiry into how it became engulfed in the financial crisis, with MSPs being told this will be headed by Professor Pamela Gillies, former principal of Glasgow Caledonian University.

Bey told the education committee that the independent investigation would be tasked with finding out whether information was withheld from the governing body, whether by oversight or incompetence, “or whether somewhere in those processes things have been deliberately kept from filtering upwards”.

O'Neill told MSPs there was “misleading” reporting of the financial position, with some senior figures at the university under the impression the institution was still on course to break even until the true picture emerged in November.

O’Neill was asked by education committee convenor Douglas Ross whether the “incompetence” of the previous leadership was to blame for the crisis. He replied: “You could say that, perhaps. There were gaps in the competence of the leadership.”

O’Neill, who was deputy principal before assuming the role of interim principal and vice-chancellor on 10 December 2024, went on to tell the education committee that “dissent wasn’t welcomed” within the previous culture at the top of the institution, although he had seen no evidence of criminality.

Unionised staff at Dundee have embarked on strike action, as University World News reported in an article looking at another troubled Scottish higher education institution, Edinburgh University, where the management is seeking to make savings of £140 million (US$177 million).

The University and College Union (UCU) Scotland said staff were being made to pay the price for “egregious management failure”.

Risk increasing in England

There is also the possibility of sudden bankruptcy in England, with the higher education regulator south of the border, the Office for Students (OfS), warning that the risk of a large university in England suddenly going bust has increased, with the sector’s finances performing worse than expected in the second half of 2024.

The regulator has modelled a drop of £3.4 billion (US$4.4 billion) in net income across the sector in 2025-26, due to poorer than expected student recruitment combined with government policies including an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions.

Papers from a December meeting of the OfS board, published on 19 March 2025, show that the regulator’s risk and audit committee believes that "risks are escalating across the sector, with providers under serious financial pressure" and the finances of English higher education institutions appear to be “towards the most pessimistic end” of scenarios modelled in May 2024. “This increases the risk of sudden market exit of a large provider,” the papers state.

First fall in a decade

The HESA data released on Thursday shows that 2,904,425 students were enrolled at UK higher education providers in the 2023-24 academic year.

This is a fall of 1% from the previous year’s total of 2,937,155 and the first annual decrease in the data since the period between 2012/13 and 2014/15 when domestic enrolments fell following the 2012 trebling of the undergraduate tuition fee cap to £9,000.

HESA reported the number of new entrants to higher education courses in the UK fell by 3% from 1,365,315 to 1,318,685 last year, with entrant numbers declining for all levels of study except postgraduate research degrees.

The number of entrants whose permanent address was outside the UK fell by 3.5%, from 758,855 to 732,285, including a 36% fall in the number of new entrants from Nigeria.

Numbers of new students from India fell by 15% and from China by 4%.

HESA said: “In 2023-24 international students accounted for 14% of all undergraduate students (down from 15% in 2022/23) and 51% of all postgraduate students (down from 52%) in UK higher education.

“There were 497,220 postgraduate qualifications awarded in 2023-24, of which 316,055 (64%) were awarded to non-UK students.”

TNE on the up

While the number of students in the UK declined, the number of transnational education (TNE) students studying for UK qualifications overseas rose by 8%.

The HESA Aggregate Offshore record shows a total of 621,065 students either registered overseas at a UK higher education provider or studying for a UK higher education qualification in 2023-24.

Dave Amor, an experienced international data and market analyst and UK-China higher education specialist, told University World News the numbers were not all down, with the numbers from Nepal rising by 70%, by 31% for Pakistan, and going up by 20% from Saudi Arabia.

“My main point is that 2022-23 was a record year for revenue for the UK higher education sector, and student numbers for 2023-24 weren't that far off. So, while there will always be winners and losers, why have so many UK institutions got into financial trouble?”

There has been some media interest in the rise in postgraduate research numbers, but Amor said: “While there could be a bit of adjusting of study plans to cope with the dependant rule [which bans foreign students from bringing dependants unless they are on a research degree], “the figure isn't such an outlier, up by 4% from a small total, and not wildly out of keeping with entrants in recent years”.

Amor was more worried about the figures trending for Chinese students, pointing out that “entrants from China are the lowest since 2018 to 2019”.

The figures ‘are not that bad’

He said perhaps the biggest shock was that “the figures aren't that bad” in light of all the bleak warnings from sector leaders about the impact from predicted falls in lucrative international student tuition fees on UK university finances.

“They don’t, on the face of it, offer an explanation of the financial difficulties facing higher education at the moment in the UK,” said Amor.

Anna Zvagule, head of communications and external affairs at international higher education pathway provider NCUK (Northern Consortium of UK universities) which operates in 40 countries, told University World News: “While the latest HESA data highlights certain challenges in international student recruitment across the UK higher education sector, we also know it’s a little out of date.

“We are encouraged by positive indicators in our own data, with record numbers of students in our pathway programmes last year, and demand for pathway and TNE routes to UK higher education growing and creating flexible routes to UK higher education.”

Migration policy

Mark Ovens, business unit director for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and UK International at the Studyportals online education choice platform, told University World News: “The new HESA data is the first look at the impact the previous government had on student migration.

“It shows the first fall in the total number of international students in the UK for several years, led by a sharp decrease in major markets, especially India and Nigeria, and particularly at postgraduate taught (PGT) level.

“The period covered, August 2023-July 2024, includes the uncertainty caused by the Migration Advisory Committee review into the Graduate Route [work visa] as well as stopping PGT dependants’ visas, which affected entrants from January 2024 onwards.

“These were part of a series of measures introduced by the outgoing government to stem migration.

“There was better news for UK universities in some emerging markets such as Nepal, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia,” he said.

“It's also important to note this HESA data is historical, and our forward-looking data, based on prospective student interest, indicates a rise in demand for the UK, as the US, Australia and Canada lose market share.”

Nic Mitchell is a UK-based freelance journalist and PR consultant specialising in European and international higher education. He blogs at www.delacourcommunications.com.