STREAM FOR FREE ON VERY LOCAL NEWS AT FOUR. CONTINUES WITH THE WORLDWIDE RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP’S TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT ON WEDNESDAY. THOSE RECIPROCAL TARIFFS TARGET IMPORTED GOODS FROM MOST U.S. TRADING PARTNERS. THE PRESIDENT CLAIMS THOSE TARIFFS TO GENERATE AMERICAN JOBS AND BOOST THE ECONOMY, CALLING WEDNESDAY LIBERATION DAY. LET’S TALK TARIFFS WITH BRIAN JACOBSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT. BRIAN, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM. LET’S START WITH THE NUMBERS. THE NEWS SENT WALL STREET SPIRALING TODAY. HERE’S A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS FROM THE BIG BOARD. YOU CAN SEE THE DOW NASDAQ S&P ALL DOWN 1600 POINTS FROM THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, THE BIGGEST HIT SINCE 2020. STILL THOUGH, HERE’S WHAT THE PRESIDENT SAID LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I THINK IT’S GOING VERY WELL. IT WAS IN OPERATION LIKE WHEN A PATIENT GETS OPERATED ON AND IT’S A BIG THING, THE MARKETS ARE GOING TO BOOM. THE STOCK IS GOING TO BOOM, THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO BOOM, AND THE REST OF THE WORLD WANTS TO SEE IS THERE ANY WAY THEY CAN MAKE A DEAL? WELL, THE BOOM WE SAW ON WALL STREET TODAY, NOT HOW THE PRESIDENT SAW IT. YEAH. AS FAR AS HOW THE MARKETS LOOKED AT IT, IF IT’S LIKE AN OPERATION, IT WAS ALMOST LIKE AN OPERATION WITHOUT HAVING THE ANESTHESIA, BECAUSE THAT’S THE WAY THAT THE MARKETS KIND OF REACTED TO HOW BROAD-BASED THESE TARIFFS ARE NOT A LOT OF EXEMPTIONS. LIKE IF YOU THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WHERE DO WE GET BANANAS FROM? WE DON’T GROW THEM HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. WE GET MOST OF THOSE FROM GUATEMALA. THAT’S GOING TO BE SUBJECT TO A 10% TARIFF. THAT’S SOMETHING THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO SHOW UP WHEN YOU’RE AT THE GROCERY STORE. BUT THEN WHEN YOU LOOK AT JUST NOT JUST THE BROAD BASE, BUT EVEN THE AMOUNT OF THE TARIFFS, THEY’RE DESIGNED TO BE RECIPROCAL, IMPLYING THAT WHAT THEY CHARGE US IS WHAT WE WILL CHARGE THEM. AND THAT DOES MAKE SENSE IN PRACTICE. BUT WHEN A LOT OF ANALYSTS HAVE LOOKED AT THE NUMBERS, IT SEEMS LIKE THESE HAVE MAYBE GONE ABOVE AND BEYOND WHAT THEY’RE ACTUALLY APPLYING. SO WE THINK THAT THIS MAYBE PROVIDES A GOOD ROOM FOR NEGOTIATION. AND THESE ARE SCHEDULED TO BASELINE TARIFFS OF 10% ARE SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT ON APRIL 5TH. AND THEN THE RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, WHICH IS A LITTLE BIT MORE THAT’S SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT ON APRIL 9TH. SO HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DIPLOMACY AND DISCUSSIONS GOING ON TO COME TO SOME SORT OF NEGOTIATED AGREEMENT HERE. AND SUPPORTERS OF THE TARIFFS SAY WE’RE GOING TO SEE LONG TERM POSITIVE EFFECTS. IN YOUR EXPERIENCE, WHAT COULD THOSE POTENTIALLY BE? WELL, YOU KNOW, THE LONG TERM POSITIVE EXPERIENCE COULD BE AS FAR AS BRINGING MANUFACTURING BACK TO THE UNITED STATES AND SOME OF THOSE AREAS. KEEP IN MIND, MOST OF THE MANUFACTURING JOB LOSSES THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE UNITED STATES HAS COME AS A RESULT OF TECHNOLOGY, NOT AS A RESULT OF TRADE. AND I THINK THAT IF WE DO GET SOME OF THAT RESHORING OF MANUFACTURING, THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AS FAR AS HOW MANY JOBS THAT WOULD END UP ACTUALLY CREATING. BUT NOT TO SAY THERE WON’T BE ANY. AND ACTUALLY THOSE COULD THEN BE HIGHER PAID JOBS, ESPECIALLY IF THERE’S HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY. BUT THAT COULD PLAY OUT OVER THE COURSE OF YEARS. AND I THINK THAT A LOT OF CONSUMERS AND BUSINESSES RIGHT NOW ARE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR MONTHS, AND THEN MAYBE EVEN THE NEXT YEAR, BECAUSE TARIFFS ARE AN EVENT WHERE THEY GET APPLIED, AND THEN ANY OF THAT REINVESTMENT BACK INTO THE UNITED STATES IS A PROCESS THAT PLAYS OUT OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. AND SOME IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, THE PRESIDENT’S OWN PARTY, ARE PUSHING BACK ON THESE TARIFFS AND WHAT THEY’RE DESIGNED TO DO. LET’S PULL UP A QUOTE FROM REPRESENTATIVE THOM TILLIS OF NORTH CAROLINA, PARTICULARLY IN AGRICULTURAL STATES, NORTH CAROLINA, ONE OF THOSE SAYING ANYONE WHO SAYS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF PAIN BEFORE WE GET THINGS RIGHT, NEED TO TALK TO FARMERS WHO ARE ONE CROP AWAY FROM BANKRUPTCY. HE SAYS THE ADMINISTRATION HAS TO BE CRISP ON THIS IMPLEMENTATION. OTHERWISE WE CAN DO DAMAGE THAT’S IRREPARABLE TO FARMERS AND BUSINESSES. YOUR REACTION? WELL, I AGREE THAT IT DOES REQUIRE A LOT OF NUANCE. AND AS HE WOULD SAY, THE CRISPNESS OF IT, MAINLY IF WE JUST LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED IN 2018 TO 2019 UNDER THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, THE FARMERS ENDED UP NEEDING TO GET A BAILOUT BECAUSE OF THE RETALIATION AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. AND I THINK MAYBE THAT’S ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE CAN CONSIDER HERE IS WITH THE SETTING OF THE TARIFFS, WHERE THEY ARE AND OPENING THE DOOR TO NEGOTIATIONS IS THAT WE MIGHT NOT GET THE SAME RETALIATION AS WE DID LAST TIME. IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE WISCONSIN HERE, THE AMOUNT OF GINSENG THAT WE EXPORT, THE DAIRY TO CANADA, THE DAIRY TO CHINA, THEY LOVE OUR CHEESE. THEY LOVE OUR CRANBERRIES, RIGHT. SO AS LONG AS THEY DON’T RETALIATE, MAYBE IT WOULD BE OKAY. BUT THAT IS A BIT OF A GAMBLE. AND REAL QUICKLY I WANT TO BRING UP WHAT THE NONPARTISAN TAX FOUNDATION ESTIMATED THESE TARIFFS COULD COST AVERAGE HOUSEHOLDS $2,100 A YEAR. WHAT DO YOU FORESEE THE AVERAGE AMERICAN COULD SEE AS AN IMPACT IN THE IMMEDIATE WEEKS AND MONTHS? IN RESPONSE TO THESE TARIFFS? YEAH, I THINK THAT IT ACTUALLY COULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THAT. AND IT DEPENDS ON WHAT YOU BUY. RIGHT. AS FAR AS IF IT’S A LUXURY AUTOMOBILES SUBJECT TO A 25% TARIFF, THAT WOULD BE A LOT MORE IF IT’S JUST TYPICAL FOOD ITEMS, CLOTHING ITEMS, AND THAT THE $2,100 PER HOUSEHOLD SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE. OTHER ESTIMATES SUGGEST IT COULD BE MAYBE 3000. SO I THINK THAT MAYBE 2100. AND AS FAR AS THE ALL IN COST FOR YOUR TYPICAL HOUSEHOLD IS A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE. ALL RIGHT. BRIAN JACOBSON FROM ANNEX WEALTH