By Ernie Goss, PhD, and Kristen Crawford
Creighton Economic Forecasting Group
March 2025 survey results
OMAHA, Neb. (April 1, 2025) — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved above growth neutral of 50.0 for a third straight month.
March 2025 survey highlights include that the overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index climbed to its highest level since July 2022. The March Business Confidence Index plummeted to its lowest level since September 2024 with supply managers voicing concerns over tariffs.
As indicated by a participating supply manager, “Our downstream customers tell us that consumers have reduced the purchasing of big ticket items due to the turmoil at the federal level.”
Another supply manager said they are, “Taking steps to mitigate tariff impact. Already implemented a surcharge to account for the 25% tariff on incoming steel.”
For a sixth straight month, the wholesale price inflation gauge increased, indicating expanding inflationary pressures. Even so, Goss expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on any interest rate change at its next meetings on May 6-7.
The March employment index soared to its highest level since July 2022.
According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy began the year with manufacturing exports at $7.1 billion, essentially flat from the same period in 2024.
Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, soared to 56.7, its highest level since July 2022 and up from February’s 52.0.
“The Creighton survey is recording significant volatility, much like other regional economic measures. Proposed and implemented tariffs are not only producing economic volatility but are damaging supply managers’ economic outlook. This week’s tariff announcements by President Trump are expected to add to the economic uncertainty and volatility,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
The Mid-America report is produced independently of the national ISM.
As indicated by a supply managers in the March survey, “Our downstream customers tell us that consumers have reduced the purchasing of big ticket items due to the turmoil at the federal level.”
Employment: The March employment index soared to 67.6, its highest level since July 2022 and up from 51.2 in February. Approximately 30% of supply managers reported more job applicants than openings while 20% indicated more openings than applicants. The remaining 50% reported that the number of applicants and openings was balanced.
Comments from supply managers in March:
“Lots of economic issues that continue to make forecasting very difficult. However, the U.S. economy is still strong, and we are seeing sales growth.”
“A year ago, the butter market average of the previous week at the CME was $2.829. This week it is $2.3325. At the start of the year, it was $2.5544 per pound. Steadily heading down.”
“Surprising how 100 days impact sentiment and create new “fake news”. I am hopeful that we can move from a culture of gaslighting to a culture of fact over fiction.”
“While the tariffs present another challenge to the supply chain, they are not insurmountable and are one solution to much larger issues with these targeted countries of China, Canada and Mexico, as well as the EU.”
“The U.S. either continues down the path of bankruptcy and its demise or comes out fighting for its very existence and world economic dominance! This is something the Chinese, Romans, Ottomans, Persians, Britons and many others failed to accomplish. Procurement plays a major role in this global theater!”
“Taking steps to mitigate tariff impact. Already implemented a surcharge to account for the 25% tariff on incoming steel. Non-domestic sales are strong, presumably due to front loading.”
“The tariffs on steel products from abroad have caused a 36% increase for domestic steel in the last four weeks. Now it almost does not matter if we buy expensive domestic steel without tariffs or foreign steel with tariffs.”
“As a business owner, our President is doing some interesting things with the economy.”
Wholesale Prices: The March price gauge rose to 63.7, its highest level since May 2024 and up from 63.2 in February. “The regional inflation yardstick has clearly moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are moving higher. Even so, I expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its next meetings on May 6-7,” said Goss.
As reported by a March survey participant, “Taking steps to mitigate tariff impact. Already implemented a surcharge to account for the 25% tariff on incoming steel. Non-domestic sales are strong, presumably due to front loading.”
Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the March Business Confidence Index, plummeted to 37.5, its lowest level since September 2024 and down from February’s 45.7. “Due to concerns regarding global economic tensions and rising tariffs, only one in five of supply managers expect improving business conditions over the next six months,” said Goss.
Inventories: The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, dropped to 32.5 from 51.4 in February. “After adding to inventories in the first two months of 2025, in order to front-run tariffs, firms pulled back on their inventory buildup,” said Goss.
Trade: Recent declines in the value of the dollar making U.S. goods more competitively priced abroad pushed the new export orders to 52.6 from 44.6 in February. As result of record imports for the first two months of 2025, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad with a March import index of 32.6, down from February’s record high 68.2.
According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy began the year with $7.15 billion in manufacturing exports, compared to $7.14 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 0.2% gain. In terms of export gainers, Arkansas registered the top gain with a $199.1 million addition, and Kansas recorded the largest loss with a $122.3 million reduction in the export of manufactured goods.
Other survey components of the March Business Conditions Index were: new orders increased to 55.9 from 50.4 in February; the production or sales index rose to 55.4 from February’s 51.2; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies increased to 56.0 from February’s 55.7. Higher readings indicate rising supply chain disruptions or delays.
The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
