THE MARCH state revenues report in the odd-numbered year is the most important report for Granite State government over a two-year period.
Why? March is one of the four big months for business tax payments, so it’s a critical barometer for how bullish estimates for taxes and fees can be in the coming budget.
The final numbers reveal that March was good news/bad news.
The good news is that the figures aren’t so cataclysmic that the state Senate will have to reopen what the House of Representatives sends to them for a budget and cut even further.
The House Ways and Means Committee was far more conservative than those tax advisers to Gov. Kelly Ayotte when she presented her budget in February. As a result, House budget writers cut nearly half a billion dollars more than Ayotte had in her plan.
The bad news is that these revenues aren’t good enough that the Senate Finance Committee can go on a spending spree and undo most of the deep cuts the House spending plan makes to higher education, human services spending, corrections, and aid to cities and towns.
Legislative budget writers had expected March would bring in $388 million; tentatively the state brought in just under $378 million, or $9.6 million short.
The outcome would be much worse but for three revenue sources that legislative tax experts can hardly count on.
One was the $12.3 million more from the tax on insurance premiums; state officials said higher insurance rates produced this bonus, which could be repeated in the coming months.
The other two big “surpluses” were $7 million more from lottery (thanks to sports betting and charity casinos) and $10 million from “other” revenue, likely higher-than-expected profits from Treasurer Monica Mezzapelle’s investments on state deposits.
Conversely, business taxes brought in just under $140 million, or about $15 million short of estimates.
While the state’s tourism/hospitality tax on restaurant meals and hotel rooms just about met its forecast, the “sin” taxes on the sale of tobacco and liquor together brought in $10 million less than hoped.
Right-of-center group says House budget too rosy
As we first reported on X this past week, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is warning that the proposed House budget relies on too rosy an outlook when it comes to revenues.
In a statement, the group noted in 2009, the Democratically controlled Legislature passed a budget with very optimistic revenue projections.
They proved to be so positive the next Legislature under Republican control after 2010 had to make historically deep cuts to balance that budget and adopt the next one.
“New Hampshire has long prided itself on fiscal discipline and now is not the time to abandon those principles,” said Rep. Len Turcotte, R-Barrington. “We must make prudent decisions today to ensure economic stability tomorrow.”
Here’s why this statement is troubling to the leadership team of House Majority Leader Jason Osborne, R-Auburn:
Yes, thanks to the voters last November, House Republicans have a bigger majority in this session.
But the House Freedom Caucus has a pretty significant membership and Osborne et al. can’t afford to lose more than 20 of their ranks and expect to be able to pass the budget as it is.
House Democrats are in no mood to provide any support to this spending plan that the House Finance Committee endorsed last Thursday.
If the House budget were to fail in its initial test this coming weeks, House Democrats would be in the driver’s seat to call upon the House GOP to restore some spending cuts in order to get their support.
Some other state budget goodies
The House Finance Committee got creative in hopes of finding additional revenue in the next budget and the one after that.
The trailer bill calls for the state in 2028 to market for private sale much of the 100-acre parcel that houses Hampstead Hospital and the future home for a replacement to the Sununu Youth Services Center.
House budget writers think some high-end residential neighbors to the property could yield the state millions in revenue.
By the way, the bill would also remove former Gov. and White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu’s name from the SYSC.
Another change affecting all of state government would be to extend the state hiring freeze through June 30, 2027.
Planned Parenthood takes federal, state hits
Planned Parenthood of Northern New England took budget hits in Washington and Concord as the Trump administration froze $500,000 in federal family planning grants while the proposed House budget removes $3.5 million in state and federal matching grants for the program.
“Staying silent while Trump defunds Planned Parenthood’s family planning services is just one more step in (Ayotte’s) long anti-choice voting record and one more empty campaign promise,” said Amplify New Hampshire Executive Director Ryan Mahoney.
Ayotte had included the family planning grants in her budget.
“While out-of-state dark money groups like Amplify NH spew lie after lie, Governor Ayotte will continue leading for all of New Hampshire and fight for our state’s best interests,” said John Corbett, Ayotte’s senior adviser.
Trump taps Sanborn
Mark Sanborn returned to the federal government for the fourth time last week becoming President Donald Trump’s Region 1 administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency that serves New England and 10 tribal nations.
Sanborn was assistant commissioner for the state Department of Environmental Services for a few years before leaving to join a commercial construction firm.
During Trump’s first term, he held jobs at the Transportation, Agriculture, and Housing and Urban Development departments between 2017 and 2021.
Anti-distracted driving campaign begins
At the urging of Gov. Ayotte, AAA and the state Office of Highway Safety announced a new public service advertisement campaign aimed at reminding motorists that distracted driving can be as deadly as driving after using drugs or alcohol.
According to state highway reports, 22 people were killed in crashes from 2021-24 attributed to inattention on the highways.
Additional paid media campaigns will be rolled out in the weeks ahead while state, county and local law enforcement agencies are assigning specific patrols to find and cite distracted drivers.
The U.S, Dept. of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is providing grants to support this beefed-up enforcement.
“We have seen far too many crashes on our roads due to distracted driving — these are completely preventable. This month, we are stepping up enforcement to discourage drivers from using their cellphones and other distractions while on the roads,” Ayotte said at a news conference last week.
Pappas hoping to freeze the field
Four-term U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., had an obvious motivation to declare his bid for the U.S. Senate this past week.
Pappas is hoping that his early entry will help convince fellow Rep. Maggie Goodlander, D-N.H., to take a pass on this race and seek a second term to the 2nd Congressional District seat.
Goodlander is taking her time making up her own mind, though we’ve heard through sources that some of her ardent supporters are advising it could be a difficult look for her to declare three months into her term that she will be leaving that seat to seek a promotion.
Of course, many thought idle speculation about Goodlander running in 2024 was just talk until she announced later than expected and went on to easily win the seat.
Meanwhile, state Sen. Donovan Fenton, D-Keene, continues to make the rounds at events across the district in the event that Goodlander decides to move on.
Former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, D-Concord, is a lock to seek the nomination as well if the seat opens up.
GOP claims NH environment favorable
With Pappas’s announcement, the National Republican Senatorial Committee released a new memo arguing conditions are right for the GOP to win the Senate seat.
According to its own survey of 600 likely New Hampshire voters, the GOP had a plus 1% advantage over Democrats and the party has a 48,000 voter registration advantage.
That’s hardly a big lead in a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The poll maintained that enthusiasm was on the GOP side with 92% saying they will back the Republican candidate while 87% of registered Democrats pledged to support the ticket whoever the nominee is.
Among independents, the poll found 31% considered inflation, jobs and the cost of living to be the top issue with federal spending ranked second with 17%.
Sununu hits the speaker circuit
Most political observers don’t think former Gov. Chris Sununu ultimately will decide to run for the U.S. Senate to replace retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, but he continues his speaking circuit.
The four-term governor will lead a discussion on federalism and state governance on April 17 as part of Dartmouth College’s “100 Days Series” to mark new administration on that campus.
U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., a 1988 Dartmouth graduate, will also speak during these events along with former Secretary of Commerce and Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo and former Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette.
On April 16, former U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster, D-N.H., a 1978 Dartmouth graduate, will lead a bipartisan discussion with former Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., who graduated from Dartmouth in 1993.
The 100 Days Series is co-sponsored by the Center for Business, Government and Society at Tuck with additional support from the Arthur L. Irving Institute for Energy and Society, the Revers Center for Energy, Sustainability and Innovation, and the Political Economy Project.
Dems mock Salem decision against filling House seat
Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley couldn’t help bragging over the decision of the Salem Town Council to oppose a move to hold a special election this summer to fill the seat vacated by former House Speaker Pro Tem Fred Doucette, R-Salem.
Doucette resigned from the House last month to become the Boston-based regional administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Voters elected nine Republicans to fill all the Salem House seats last fall.
The council rejected a call to fill the seat by an 8-1 margin which included the opposition of House Majority Floor Leader Joe Sweeney, who chairs the town council.
Since 2022, Democrats have won seven of nine special elections in the House.
“Salem Republicans like Joe Sweeney see what’s happening across the country and are clearly desperate to cling to control rather than risk another embarrassing loss at the ballot box. Refusing to hold a special election is a clear admission from Republicans that they know Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Kelly Ayotte’s agenda is deeply unpopular with Granite Staters — even in Salem,” Buckley said.
“Voters deserve to have full representation in Concord, and if Republicans aren’t scared of losing, then they should reverse course and hold a special election to fill the seat.”
House OKs local gambling control; budget axes it
The House Finance Committee was looking for revenue under every couch cushion, so the rank-and-file will likely forgive its decision when it came to local control and gambling.
The House has passed by voice votes two bills giving cities and towns more control over gambling at charity casinos.
The first bill would permit a community to seek a local referendum (HB 247) to allow charity casinos to have historic horse racing machines.
The second would permit any community to take a vote not to allow any “games of chance” within their borders that would include table betting at charity casinos such as poker tournaments (HB 737).
But while closing its state budget package, the House Finance Committee approved a trailer bill rider that would repeal the current requirement in state law that cities and towns have to vote to permit restaurants and bars to have keno gambling within community limits.
State lottery officials said the provision would raise $2 million in the first year of the next budget and $10 million in the second.
NEC to honor CNN anchor
New England College has landed CNN anchor and chief political correspondent Dana Bash to be its commencement speaker on May 3.
She will be awarded an honorary doctorate of human letters in recognition of her achievements.
Bash has had the chief correspondent role since 2015 as the anchor of the daily Inside Politics and weekend State of the Union program with Jake Tapper.
“We could not be more excited to welcome Dana Bash to NEC,” said Dr. Wayne F. Lesperance Jr., president of New England College. “The importance of civic engagement is a thread we weave throughout the student experience at NEC, and I believe our graduating class will be inspired by Ms. Bash’s experiences, perspective, and role in American politics.”’
Bash has been a fixture covering many presidential campaigns for CNN and landed some of the first interviews with Sununu when he decided not to seek reelection as governor and passed on runs for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and president in 2023.
Packard’s bill faces final hearing
The Senate Education Committee last week hosted the final hearing for the parental rights bill (HB 10) from House Speaker Sherman Packard, R-Londonderry.
Packard credits Reps. Debra DeSimone and Jay Markell, both R-Atkinson, with the complete rewrite of his proposal.
The Senate doesn’t have to vote on this bill until June 10, but Gov. Ayotte has asked both House and Senate leaders to send this one to her as soon as possible.
House Dem invokes Nazis during anti-sanctuary city bill debate
This past week, state Rep. Chris Muns, D-Hampton, likened support for a ban on sanctuary city policies to a “slippery slope” that would take innocent people off the street like in Nazi Germany.
Muns told his colleagues on the House Finance Committee last week that his father had been taken from his home and forced to work in a labor camp in Nazi Germany.
“I could not live with myself if my vote in favor of this (bill) led to some 16-year-old being picked off the street in New Hampshire and taken to one of our jails or a detention camp far from his home,” Muns said.
During debate on the bill (HB 511), Rep. Jess Edwards, R-Auburn, criticized the analogy.
“As a 33-year combat veteran of the army, I resent any implication that we behave like Nazi Germany,” Edwards said.
“I would also say that anyone who’s got an ICE detainer probably has already begun the due process and that if we care about the safety and efficiency of our ICE agents — the human beings who do our enforcement for us — we will make it as simple and as safe as we can for them so that they can execute what the American public voted for in November. And that is to unwind four years of massive abuse of our immigration laws.”
The House budget panel endorsed the bill on a 14-11 party-line vote, and it goes to the full House later this week.
Hassan promotes support for libraries
U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., visited the Bedford Public Library last week to highlight her opposition to the Trump administration cuts to federal grants for libraries and museums.
The move is also timely since the proposed N.H. House Finance budget would eliminate the state Division of the Arts that provides grants to many local programs.
Hassan said she’d heard from hundreds of constitutions about the impact of the Trump cuts.
Quote of the Week:
“This is a horrible budget compared to the last two I worked on, but it is one that operates in the current environment, it operates in the real world that we are in.” State Rep. Jess Edwards, R-Auburn, who chairs that part of the House Finance Committee that deals with the budget of the Department of Health and Human Services.
