ISW: Russia strengthens its influence in Africa

The Russian Federation is strengthening its strategic ties with the juntas of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), increasing its influence in Africa, and opening up access to the region's mineral resources, including potentially huge reserves of gold, uranium and other valuable natural resources.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysts pointed out that Russia is strengthening its strategic ties with the juntas of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), joining forces to increase Russian influence in Africa.

On 3 April, at the AES summit in Moscow, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso agreed to establish a strategic partnership and strengthen the newly created joint AES military force, making Russia the first country to recognise the trilateral joint force established on 6 July 2024.

Quote: "Russia and AES member states expressed a willingness to jointly combat regional instability and enhance ongoing counterterrorism efforts, with Russia agreeing to provide modern weapons and military training for a planned 5,000-strong joint force that will deploy to the central Sahel region."

Details: On 3 April, Bloomberg reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia would use military instructors already in the area to conduct such training – likely referring to the Russian Defence Ministry's African Corps, which transported large convoys of equipment to Mali via Guinea in 2025.

Russia and AES also agreed to cooperate in the areas of infrastructure, trade, economy, investment and banking.

Quote: "Russia's support for the AES is a long-term strategic endeavour aimed at advancing the Kremlin's geopolitical goals of undermining Western influence in Africa and threatening NATO's southern flank, as the Critical Threats Project's Africa File has routinely assessed.

Russia’s leading role in AES’s military training and weapons procurement may yield additional lucrative benefits in the form of either plausibly deniable illicit or legitimate resource concession agreements that would grant the Kremlin access to the energy- and mineral-rich region with potentially vast amounts of gold, uranium, and other valuable natural resources."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 4 April:

• CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev gave several interviews with American news outlets on 3 April and presented views that contradict the current Kremlin line on Ukraine.
• The Kremlin remains unwilling to commit to a general ceasefire in Ukraine, continuing to reject the ground ceasefire that US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have offered.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on 4 April that the US is closely monitoring Russia's actions in Ukraine and hopes that Russia is "serious" about resolving the war rather than simply dragging out negotiations.
• A Russian ballistic missile struck a residential area in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 4 April, killing at least 18 people, including children.
• Russia continues to employ strike packages predominantly comprised of drones amid reports that it is growing its missile stockpile.
• Ukrainian railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia signed two contracts with Chinese rail producers in January 2025 as part of efforts to support the development and repair of Ukrainian rail infrastructure.
• Russia is reinforcing its strategic ties with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) juntas in a concerted effort to enhance Russian influence in Africa.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• The Russian military reportedly continues to expand its conventional force end-strength.

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