“I don’t want to put my money into that country.”
— Alyssa Daniels, Toronto resident
Hello Downriver,
We had visitors over the weekend, relatives from Canada who brought good humor, good appetites and good conversation.
If you can call weekend-long chats about Donald Trump good.
What made the visit — and the conversation — particularly interesting was their take not only on Trump’s destruction of the American way of life and his unconscionable imposition of tariffs to “fix” problems that don’t exist, but also his unexpected influence on Canadian politics.
Not to mention the Canadian economy — and their own attitudes about coming across the border.
Turns out, according to my wife’s cousins, that Trump’s irrational, indefensible and otherwise moronic behavior (my words, not theirs) has thrown the April 28 national election north of our borders into a cocked hat.
To wit: Prior to last week’s explosive — and asinine — announcement by Trump of punitive tariffs assessed against the planet (including part of the globe with only a penguin population), Canadian politics looked like it had shifted right.
Yep, prior to the Jan. 6 resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, polls since mid-2023 already had shown Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre (pronounced poy-lee-ev) well ahead of any Liberal Party candidate.
But then Trump opened his mouth last week, held up posters filled with Dr. Seuss math and immediately trashed the retirement savings of tens of millions of Americans.
There’s a lot of things you can call such people, but competent isn’t one of them.
And in Canada, the impact went in an unexpected direction: following Trump’s display of ignorance, cruelty and economic stupidity, the race between Poilievre and newly sworn in Prime Minister Mark Carney, became neck-and-neck.
For our guests — my wife’s cousins — this swing was a profound development, much to their delight.
One international report put it this way: “The election comes as Canada faces a trade war with the U.S. and calls from President Donald Trump for it to become the 51st American state, issues which are expected to be top of mind for voters.”
But the impending Canadian election was only one aspect of the Trump stupidity talked about for two days.
Of course, we talked about the impact of the tariffs on trade with our historical neighbors — and allies — to the north.
And they saw that impact firsthand: “There were only two other cars on the (Blue Water) bridge when we crossed – and there was no one in the duty-free.”
Explanation?
Canadians are not visiting the U.S.
The travel company AFAR wrote last week that “new tariffs, an updated travel advisory, talk of a 51st state, and security concerns have soured Canadians on visiting — and spending in — the United States.”
“The problem is,” the site said, “that Canadians visit and spend more than any other foreign travelers.”
According to The New York Times, “Last year, Canadians visiting the United States were responsible for $20.5 billion in spending.”
But not this year.
Instead, Trump’s tariffs and threats have prompted many Canadians to cancel their plans to visit the U.S.
And the move away from U.S. vacations isn’t just anecdotal: according to Canadian travel agency Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, Canadians’ leisure travel bookings to American cities dropped 40% in February compared to a year before.
Overall, 20% of Flight Centre’s customers canceled a trip to the U.S. over the past three months.
And advance bookings between Canada and the U.S. have plummeted by more than 70% for the summer flying season, according to analysis by the aviation data company OAG.
Finally, road trips are down, too, by nearly 25% in February compared to a year ago, according to Statistics Canada, the country’s national statistical agency.
Assisting in those declines is an ever-so-slightly change in Canada’s travel alerts.
The Canadian government’s website issued the following specific warning:
“U.S. border agents are entitled to search your electronic devices, such as your phones, computers or tablets, when you are entering the United States. They don’t need to provide a reason when requesting a password to open your device.
“If you refuse, they may seize your device. The border agent could also delay your travel or deny entry if you are not a U.S. citizen.
“We know also that some people have been detained,” said Frederic Dimanche, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University.
Yep, nothing says welcome like hassling our Canadian relatives.
(Knowing Trump, our border agents are probably looking for cartoons, slogans — and even my essays — making fun of the moron.)
Not surprisingly, as a result of all the alerts and warnings, one of my wife’s cousins simply left her phone at home.
Of course, my wife and I are wondering what it will be like later this summer when we return the favor and visit her relatives “down east” in the Maritimes (Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island).
Will we be afforded the historic friendly welcome from Canadian border agents at the Ambassador Bridge — or should I buy a burner phone?
Traveling aside, the rest of our conversations revolved around the unnecessary nature of the trade war launched by one man.
In a mere three days (as of Monday), Trump has done more damage to the American economy than any other president since … well, I can’t think of an equivalent — except Trump himself, in 2018-2021.
This man-made disaster is indefensible because there was no reason for it: For the second time in his White House tenure, Trump inherited an economy that was running on all cylinders — and then went to great lengths to destroy it.
But don’t take my word for it.
The congressional Joint Economic Committee said so.
During Trump’s first term (2017-2021), the Committee had this to say:
“It is clear that Trump inherited a strong economy that was still trending upward when he entered office — those trends have continued.
“In short, Trump inherited a strong economy from Barack Obama. The question is whether he will weaken it.”
He did; he left a mess for Biden to clean up.
And in 2025, it was wash, rinse, repeat — and Reuters put it this way: “While Trump dismisses the notion, the economy he inherited from Joe Biden was robust, with low unemployment, slowing inflation, and above-trend growth, investment and consumption.”
Then a mere month ago — before Trump’s latest tariff wars — Foreign Policy magazine wrote this:
“Just a few weeks before the 2024 presidential election in the United States, the Economist explained why the country’s economy was the ‘envy of the world,’ with low unemployment, inflation under control, and a growth rate unmatched by any advanced economy.
“Fast-forward a few months, and the U.S. economy is not the envy of many anymore.”
Finally, the talk of recession is now front of mind across the markets, with Goldman Sachs raising the odds of a U.S. recession to 45% from 35% — while JPMorgan has raised the risk to 60%.
All because of Trump’s escalating trade war — and tariff tax on Americans.
So what does this mean for us?
Trump has consistently been saying that short-term pain is worth the long-term gain he hopes to get from possible new deals.
But the fall of the stock market is a reality, a here-and-now fact of life for those with skin in the game — like those of us whose retirement accounts are tied to market performance.
Yes, yes, “only” 60% of Americans have money in the stock market — but much of that is through various 401(k) retirement accounts.
For us, it’s been a loss of 6% of our savings, money we will NEVER recoup.
But here’s the thing: We’re boomers and if our generation loses enough of its savings, two things could happen:
We’ll end up leaving far less to our children and grandchildren — or end up in our kids’ homes because we no longer can afford our own.
Funny, but the rich and powerful don’t have that choice — and they continue to make out like bandits.
And the 40% who don’t have money in the stock market? They’ll be hammered by higher costs on perishable goods, by job cuts forced by the impact of tariffs and by the overall uncertainty in the market.
Bottom line?
Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, said it best Monday: “What we’ve seen so far is not the end of it.”
Great.
I didn’t vote for this man-made economic disaster; I didn’t vote for a moron who bankrupted three casinos; I didn’t vote for a South African nepo baby who thinks he knows best how to destroy our country; I didn’t vote for a convicted felon who is a proven sexual predator.
Some of you did.
And I hold all of you responsible for this debacle.
The only thing that gives me solace is that the pendulum swings — and this one has a huge weight on the end.
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To read a more in-depth version of this week’s essay, check out Substack.com and look for me at “Farrandipity.”
It’s free.
——
Craig Farrand is a former managing editor of The News Herald Newspapers. I can be reached at craig.substack@gmail.com.
